Bond Markets - Analysis and Portfolio Management - Journals

 

https://www.inderscience.com/jhome.php?jcode=ijbd

https://oa.mg/journals/open-access-fixed-income-journals

https://oa.mg/journals/open-access-debt-journals

https://www.mdpi.com/journal/jrfm/special_issues/Fixed_Income_Securities

https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijfixinc

S & P 500 - List of Companies

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies

Security    GICS Sector     Sub-Industry         Headquarters Location Founded

3M             Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Saint Paul, Minnesota 1902

A. O. Smith Industrials Building Products Milwaukee, Wisconsin 1916

Abbott     Health Care Health Care Equipment North Chicago, Illinois 1888

AbbVie     Health Care Pharmaceuticals North Chicago, Illinois 2013 (1888)

Accenture Information Technology      IT Consulting & Other Services Dublin, Ireland 1989

Activision Blizzard Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment Santa Monica, California 2008

ADM Consumer Staples Agricultural Products & Services Chicago, Illinois 1902

Adobe Inc. Information Technology Application Software San Jose, California 1982

ADP Industrials Human Resource & Employment Services Roseland, New Jersey 1949

Advance Auto Parts Consumer Discretionary Automotive Retail Raleigh, North Carolina 1932

AES Corporation Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Arlington, Virginia 1981

Aflac Financials Life & Health Insurance Columbus, Georgia 1955

Agilent Technologies Health Care Health Care Equipment Santa Clara, California 1999

Air Products and Chemicals Materials Industrial Gases Allentown, Pennsylvania

Book - Margin of Safety - Seth Klarman

 

30 Big Ideas from Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety (Special Report)

Vishal Khandelwal

https://www.safalniveshak.com/30-ideas-from-seth-klarman-margin-of-safety/

Margin of Safety: Risk-averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor

Seth A. Klarman

HarperBusiness, 1991 - Business & Economics - 249 pages

https://books.google.co.in/books/about/Margin_of_Safety.html?id=1QpjAAAACAAJ

India Equity Research Reports

 

Ranbaxy - 2013 - Karvy Stock Broking Report

http://bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market-reports/equity-brokertips/2013-05/13681734590.74676900.pdf

Varun Beverages - Motilal Oswal May 2022

http://www.motilaloswal.com/site/rreports/637557157445360723.pdf

ICICI Direct - Varun Beverages

https://www.icicidirect.com/research/equity/varun-beverages-ltd/5261

Quantitative Security Analysis - Bulletin Board

June 14,2022

https://iknowfirst.com/momentum-stocks-based-on-big-data-returns-up-to-10-0-in-1-month

Stock Forecast Based on Machine Learning: Returns up to 73.00% in 14 Days

June 4, 2017
https://iknowfirst.com/fr-52-week-high-stocks-based-on-machine-learning-returns-up-to-73-00-in-14-days

Equity Research and Portfolio Management - Bulletin Board

July 2022

CMIE Board

https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=20220526112409&msec=206

May 2014

Should Retiree Clients Boost Equity Exposure?
http://www.financial-planning.com/30-days-30-ways/should-retiree-clients-boost-equity-exposure-2689120-1.html

Pub 11.5.2014

Long-Term Investing - Basics and Bibliography

 

Portfolios for Long-Term Investors* 

John H Cochrane Author Notes

Review of Finance, Volume 26, Issue 1, February 2022, Pages 1–42, https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfab038

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article/26/1/1/6484661

January 2022

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/01/stock-market-fall-and-long-term.html

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/01/portfolios-for-long-term-investors.html

Video of the presentation of the above paper.   https://www.nber.org/lecture/ltam-2021-john-cochrane-keynote-speaker

Value Investing Now - Ben Graham - Narayana Rao - Jeffrey Towson

What Would Ben Graham Do Now?: A New Value Investing Playbook for a Global Age
Jeffrey Towson
FT Press, 21-Apr-2011 - Business & Economics - 288 pages
As originally conceived by the legendary Benjamin Graham, traditional value investing involves purchasing relatively stable stocks and companies at a percentage below their intrinsic value. But this approach contains many hidden, U.S.-centric assumptions that simply don’t work well in today’s high-growth emerging markets. In this book, leading global value investor Jeffrey Towson extends and modernizes value investing, helping you apply its core principles while you access tremendous opportunities available in today’s fastest-growing markets.

Towson introduces the powerful Value Point system that grows out of his experience on the elite investing team selected by Prince Alwaleed, the "Arabian Warren Buffett." While retaining Graham’s relentless focus on price and quality, he shows how to integrate three crucial additional forms of value into your stock assessments: the value of political access in a government-infused investment world, the value of reputation in a world of colliding markets, actors and biases, and the value of capabilities in a multi-local world.

Building on these techniques, Towson presents a complete investment playbook for the next five years. Next, he shows how to invest for the next twenty years—successfully navigating the titanic market collisions that will batter investors who aren’t prepared for them.
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=gmBNEyhTBpYC

Financial Statement Analysis Mistakes by Analysts

Even basics not followed by analysts.

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2015/05/12/the-top-five-accounting-mistakes-analysts-make/

One Billion Dollar Assets Under Management - Goal for Retirement Investment Adviser Firms

The principals of the firm need to reinvest the earnings in the firm to grow assets. But asset quality is important. Growth should not come at lower profits. If profits decrease, the firm may find it difficult to provide the services desired by the client.

http://www.financial-planning.com/blogs/1-billion-is-not-your-magic-number-2692820-1.html

US Patent 7,251,627 - Identifying stocks for inclusion in a portfolio

Publication number US7251627 B1
Publication type Grant
Application number US 09/406,394
Publication date Jul 31, 2007
Filing date Sep 27, 1999
Inventors Thomas E. Vass
Original Assignee Vass Thomas E

https://www.google.com/patents/US7251627

Portfolio Theory and Management - Baker and Filbeck - 2013 - Oxford - Book Information

Google Book Link with Preview Facility
http://books.google.co.in/books?id=r2Tf_PiqlA8C

This 30-chapter book consists of seven sections. These chapters are: (1) portfolio theory and asset pricing, (2) the investment policy statement and fiduciary duties, (3) asset allocation and portfolio construction, (4) risk management, (V) portfolio execution, monitoring, and rebalancing, (6) evaluating and reporting portfolio performance, and (7) special topics.

Handbook of Portfolio Construction - John B. Guerard - 2010 - Book Information

Google book link with Preview facility

http://books.google.co.in/books?id=YZZJka5wu_8C

Springer - Publisher book link - has  a sample chapter for download

http://www.springer.com/economics/financial+economics/book/978-0-387-77438-1




Contents
Part I Markowitz for the Masses: Portfolio Construction Techniques
1 Markowitz for the Masses: The Risk and Return of Equity
and Portfolio Construction Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
John B. Guerard, Jr.
2 Markowitz and the Expanding Definition of Risk:
Applications of Multi-factor Risk Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
John B. Guerard, Jr.
3 Markowitz Applications in the 1990s and the New
Century: DataMining Corrections and the 130/30 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
John B. Guerard, Jr.
4 Markowitz’s Mean–Variance Rule and the Talmudic
Diversification Recommendation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Haim Levy and Ran Duchin
5 On the Himalayan Shoulders of HarryMarkowitz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
Paul A. Samuelson
6 Models for Portfolio Revision with Transaction Costs
in the Mean–Variance Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
Andrew H. Chen, Frank J. Fabozzi, and Dashan Huang
7 Principles for Lifetime Portfolio Selection: Lessons
from Portfolio Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153
James H. VanderWeide
8 Harry Markowitz and the Early History
of Quadratic Programming.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179
Richard W. Cottle and Gerd Infanger
9 Ideas in Asset and Asset–Liability Management
in the Tradition of H.M. Markowitz .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .213
William T. Ziemba
10 Methodologies for Isolating and Assessing the Portfolio
Performance Potential of Stock Return Forecast Models
with an Illustration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .259
Bernell K. Stone and John B. Guerard, Jr.
11 Robust Portfolio Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .337
R. Douglas Martin, Andrew Clark, and Christopher G. Green
Part II Owitz and the Expanding Definition of Risk: Applications
of Multi-Factor Risk Models
12 Applying Markowitz’s Critical Line Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .383
Andras Niedermayer and Daniel Niedermayer
13 FactorModels in Portfolio and Asset Pricing Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .401
Gregory Connor and Robert A. Korajczyk
14 Applications of Markowitz Portfolio
Theory To Pension Fund Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .419
Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber, and Christopher R. Blake
15 Global Equity Risk Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .439
Jose Menchero, Andrei Morozov, and Peter Shepard
16 What Matters Most in Portfolio Construction? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .481
Dean M. Petrich and Ronald N. Kahn
17 Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization for Volatile
Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .493
Svetlozar T. Rachev, Borjana Racheva-Iotova, Stoyan
V. Stoyanov, and Frank J. Fabozzi
Part III Applications of Portfolio Construction, Performance
Measurement, and Markowitz DataMining Corrections Tests
18 Linking Momentum Strategies with Single-Period
Portfolio Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .511
John M. Mulvey,Woo Chang Kim, and Mehmet Bilgili
19 Reflections on Portfolio Insurance, Portfolio Theory,
and Market Simulation with HarryMarkowitz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .529
Bruce I. Jacobs and Kenneth N. Levy
20 Evaluating Hedge Fund Performance: A Stochastic
Dominance Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .551
Sheng Li and Oliver Linton
21 Multiportfolio Optimization: A Natural Next Step . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .565
Martin W.P. Savelsbergh, Robert A. Stubbs, and Dieter
Vandenbussche
22 Alternative Model to Evaluate Selectivity
and Timing Performance of Mutual Fund Managers:
Theory and Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .583
Cheng-few Lee, Alice C. Lee, and Nathan Liu
23 Case Closed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .601
Robert A. Haugen and Nardin L. Baker
24 Stock-Selection Modeling and Data Mining Corrections:
Long-Only Versus 130/30Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .621
John B. Guerard, Jr., Sundaram Chettiappan, and GanLin Xu
25 Distortion Risk Measures in Portfolio Optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .649
Ekaterina N. Sereda, EfimM. Bronshtein, Svetozar T. Rachev,
Frank J. Fabozzi,Wei Sun, and Stoyan V. Stoyanov
26 A Benefit from the Modern Portfolio Theory
for Japanese Pension Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .675
Makoto Suzuki
27 Private Valuation of Contingent Claims
in a Discrete Time/State Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .691
Alan J. King, Olga Streltchenko, and Yelena Yesha
28 Volatility Timing and Portfolio Construction
Using Realized Volatility for the S&P500 Futures Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .711
Dimitrios D. Thomakos and Tao Wang
29 The Application of Modern Portfolio
Theory to Real Estate: A Brief Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .733
TimothyW. Viezer
About the Editor and Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .761
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 777

CAIA Level I: An Introduction to Core Topics in Alternative Investments - Book Information

Google Book link with Preview facility
http://books.google.co.in/books?id=IyUXEeUUFOIC

Advances in Portfolio Construction and Implementation - By: Alan Scowcroft; Stephen Satchell - Book Information

Publisher Butterworth Heinemann
2003


Contents



Front Cover
Advances in Portfolio Construction and Implementation
Copyright Page
Contents
List of Contributors
Introduction
Chapter 1. A review of portfolio planning: models and systems
1.1 Introduction and Overview
1.2 Alternative Computational Models
1.3 Symmetric and Asymmetric Measures of Risk
1.4 Computational Models in Practice
1.5 Preparation of Data: Financial Data Marts
1.6 Solution Methods
1.7 Computational Experience
1.8 Discussions and Conclusions
1.9 Appendix 1: Piecewise Linear Approximation of the Quadratic Form
1.10 Appendix 2: Comparative Computational Views of the Alternative Models
References
Web References
Acknowledgements
Chapter 2. Generalized mean-variance analysis and robust portfolio diversification
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Generalized Mean-Variance Analysis
2.3 The State Preference Theory Approach to Portfolio Construction
2.4 Implementation and Simulation
2.5 Conclusions and Suggested Further Work
References
Chapter 3. Portfolio construction from mandate to stock weight: a practitioner's perspective
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Allocating Tracking Error for Multiple Portfolio Funds
3.3 Tracking Errors for Arbitrary Portfolios
3.4 Active CAPM, or How Far Should a Bet be Taken?
3.5 Implementing Ideas in Real Stock Portfolios
3.6 Conclusions
References
Chapter 4. Enhanced indexation
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Constructing a Consistent View
4.3 Enhanced Indexing
4.4 An Illustrative Example: Top-down or Bottom-up?
4.5 Conclusions
4.6 Appendix 1: Derivation of the Theil-Goldberger Mixed Estimator
4.7 Appendix 2: Optimization
References
Notes
Chapter 5. Portfolio management under taxes
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Do Taxes Really Matter to Investors and Managers?
5.3 The Core Problems
5.4 The State of the Art
5.5 The Multi-Period Aspect
5.6 Loss Harvesting
5.7 After-Tax Benchmarks
5.8 Conclusions
References
Chapter 6. Using genetic algorithms to construct portfolios
6.1 Limitations of Traditional Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization
6.2 Selecting a Method to Limit the Number of Securities in the Final Portfolio
6.3 Practical Construction of a Genetic Algorithm-Based Optimizer
6.4 Performance of Genetic Algorithm
6.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 7. Near-uniformly distributed, stochastically generated portfolios
7.1 Introduction - A Tractable N-Dimensional Experimental Control
7.2 Applications
7.3 Dynamic Constraints
7.4 Results from the Dynamic Constraints Algorithm
7.5 Problems and Limitations with Dynamic Constraints Algorithm
7.6 Improvements to the Distribution
7.7 Results of the Dynamic Constraints with Local Density Control
7.8 Conclusions
7.9 Further Work
7.10 Appendix 1: Review of Holding Distribution in Low Dimensions with Minimal Constraints
7.11 Appendix 2: Probability Distribution of Holding Weight in Monte Carlo Portfolios in N Dimensions with Minimal Constraints
7.12 Appendix 3: The Effects of Simple Holding Constraints on Expected Distribution of Asset Holding Weights
7.13 Appendix 4: Properties of Hyper-Solids
References
Notes
Chapter 8. Modelling directional hedge funds-mean, variance and correlation with tracker funds
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Mean and Variance of Directional Strategies
8.3 Correlation with Tracker Fund
8.4 Parameters Estimation
8.5 Optimal Allocation
8.6 An Empirical Application to the Currency Markets
8.7 Conclusions
8.8 Appendix 1: Mean and Variance of Directional Strategies
8.9 Appendix 2: Correlation with Tracker Fund
8.10 Appendix 3: Optimal Allocation
References
Notes
Acknowledgements
Chapter 9. Integrating market and credit risk in fixed income portfolios
9.1 Introduction
9.2 How to Measure Market and Credit Risk
9.3 The Ways of Constructing Loss Distributions
9.4 Components of Credit Risk
9.5 Portfolio Approach
9.6 Conclusions
9.7 Appendix
References
Notes
Chapter 10. Incorporating skewness and kurtosis in portfolio optimization: a multidimensional efficient set
10.1 Introduction
10.2 The Algebra of Multivariate Moments
10.3 The Portfolio Frontier: Expected Return, Skewness and Kurtosis
10.4 Conclusion
References
Notes
Chapter 11. Balancing growth and shortfall probability in continuous time active portfolio management
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Some Basics
11.3 Active Portfolio Management
11.4 Trading off Risk and Return in Active Portfolio Management: Fractional Objectives
11.5 Risk-Constrained Minimal Time
References
Chapter 12. Assessing the merits of rank-based optimization for portfolio construction
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Optimal Portfolio with Ranks
12.3 Empirical Tests
12.4 Conclusions
References
Notes
Chapter 13. The mean-downside risk portfolio frontier: a non-parametric approach
13.1 Introduction
13.2 The Mean-DSR Portfolio Frontier: The Traditional Approach
13.3 The Multivariate Case
13.4 A Kernel Approach
13.5 The Kernel Approach to the Multivariate Case
13.6 The Mean-DSR Portfolio Frontier Using Kernel Estimates
13.7 Asset Pricing
13.8 Conclusion
References
Chapter 14. Some exact results for efficient portfolios with given returns
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Properties of the Risk Estimator
14.3 Properties of the Estimated Portfolio Weights
14.4 The Riskless Asset Case
14.5 Conclusions
14.6 Appendix: The Unconditional Mean of
References
Notes
Chapter 15. Optimal asset allocation for endowments: A large deviations approach
15.1 Introduction
15.2 The Asset Allocation Model
15.3 An Illustrative Example
15.4 Conclusions
References
Notes
Acknowledgements
Chapter 16. Methods of relative portfolio optimization
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Some Background on Relative Portfolio Optimization
16.3 Model Approaches for Relative Portfolio Optimization
16.4 Discussion of the Models
16.5 Conclusion
References
Notes
Chapter 17. Predicting portfolio returns using the distributions of efficient set portfolios
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Efficient Set Mathematics for Given ﾵ and V
17.3 The Effect of Forecasts
17.4 Model and Process
17.5 Data and Empirical Results
17.6 Conclusions
17.7 Appendix: Effect of Estimation Error in ﾵ
References
Notes
Acknowledgements
Index
Advances in Portfolio Construction and Implementation

Opinion on Gold - Gold can go to $1000 per Ounce - May 2013

17 May 2013

Last week, Manny Roman, the chief executive of  hedge fund Man Group, said he expected prices to fall to $1000.

Credit Suisse analysts are bearish, with head of global commodities research Ric Deverell predicting the price could even fall below $1,000 within five years:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/17/five-reasons-why-the-gold-bears-are-right/

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2005

Wall Street's Best Stock Pickers

Morgan Keegan & Co.'s Holly Guthrie
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey's Christopher Donaghey
Delafield Hambrecht's Quynh Pham
Ferris Baker's Curtis Trimble
DE Investment Research's James Lee
Banc of America Securities' Kevin McCarthy
Smith Barney Citigroup's Anthony Wible
Miller Johnson's Jay M. Meier
Merrill Lynch's Steven Milunovich
Smith Barney Citigroup's Gregory Badishkanian

Wall Street's Best Earnings Estimators

Credit Suisse First Boston's Ivy Zelman
Smith Barney Citigroup's Charles Boorady
Lehman Brothers' Peter Ruschmeier
Robert W. Baird & Co.'s Robert McCarthy
Lehman Brothers' Paul Cheng
Legg Mason Wood Walker's Jerry R. Herman/Robert Craig
Delafield Hambrecht's Quynh Pham
Goldman Sachs' Matthew Borsch
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey's Matthew Snowling
Prudential Equity Group's Andrew Casey

Smith Barney Citigroup's Anthony Wible

Industry: IT Services, Software

Smith Barney Citigroup's Tony Wible is currently keen on companies that provide electronic payments and digital content distribution. A favorite: Euronet Worldwide (nasdaq: EEFT ), headquartered in Leawood, Kans. Wible, who enjoyed a 44% gain on the stock in 2004, likes the company's penetration in emerging markets such as Eastern Europe and India. In the latter, Euronet provides outsourcing services for automatic teller machines, which number only 30,000 to 50,000 throughout the entire country. Wible estimates that, in the long term, India could have 300,000 ATMs.

Miller Johnson's Jay M. Meier 

Industry: Computers & Peripherals, Electronic Instruments, Aerospace & Defense, Communications Equipment

Meier is now bullish on Identix (nasdaq: IDNX ). The company is the world's largest vendor of biometric technology, used for things like digitally verifying fingerprints or voice. He points to Congress' mandate that all U.S. ports of entry deploy biometrics by next October. "This technology can verify whether a person has clearance to use a computer, enter a doorway, even start your car," he says. "Star Trekkie stuff."

Prudential Equity Group's Andrew Casey 

Industry: Machinery

Casey is bullish on agricultural equipment in 2005. His rationale: Lower crop production coupled with increased global demand for U.S. agricultural products will put more money in American farmers' pockets. Some of that extra income will be spent on new farm equipment. Spurring this year's demand for American farm products are higher demand from a growing ethanol industry and the weakening value of the dollar against foreign currencies.





http://www.forbes.com/2005/05/05/cz_jr_0505starmine_writeup_sp_8.html

http://www.forbes.com/2005/05/05/cz_sr_0505starmine_writeup_ee_10.html

http://www.forbes.com/2005/04/29/05bestanalystsland.html


Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2006

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2007

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2006

Avondale Partners' Frank Gristina

Internet Software and Services, Internet & Catalog Retail

Gristina sees a promising future for online retailing: "When companies provide clear value propositions in terms of price, convenience and quality, consumers are more willing to shop online for both hard goods and perishables." He looks for companies that offer proprietary products and services, such as online video rental service NetFlix (nasdaq: NFLX ) and online pet pharmacy PetMed Express (nasdaq: PETS ), stocks that Gristina had as buys last year. They rose 129% and 86%, respectively.

Petrie Parkman's Joseph Magner

Oil,Gas and Consumable Fuels

In 2006, Magner is focusing upon energy companies with double-digit production growth, attractive valuation metrics and healthy free cash flow (discretionary cash flow minus capital expenditures). He also strongly favors companies that do not depend solely upon rising commodity prices (Questar is increasing drilling density to recover a larger percentage of gas). “Costs are going up, and prices can be flat year-to-year,” Magner explains. “What is important is how much money they can invest and get out of the ground and then reinvest to continue to grow net asset value.”

First Analysis' Frank Sparacino

Software

It's the people, not the technology, that are important to Frank Sparacino with First Analysis of Chicago. "Products and technologies are important for software companies, but as markets tend to mature, they become secondary in importance," he says.

J.P Morgan's Harry Curtis

Hotels and Leisure, Real Estate


"If you can’t get the numbers right, you can’t get the stock right,” says J.P. Morgan’s Harry Curtis.





http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/30/starmine-analysts-stocks-cz_jy_0502gristina_06topanalysts.html

http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/30/starmine-analysts-stocks-cx_ck_0502sparacino_06topanalysts.html

http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/30/starmine-analysts-stocks-cx_sc_0502curtis_06topanalysts.html

http://www.forbes.com/2006/05/01/06topanalysts_best-stock-pickers-earnings-estimators_land.html

http://excellence.thomsonreuters.com/award/starmine  (Information on the best analysts for many years and for many countries is available)

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2005

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2007

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2007

Wachovia Securities' Jennifer Fritzsche

Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services, Diversified Telecommunication Services


Her best call of 2006: Cogent Communications Group (nasdaq: CCOI - news - people ). The "outperform" rating she held from the initiation of her coverage in March 2006 through the end of the year would have yielded shareholders a 66% price gain. Fritzsche still holds an "outperform" on this stock.

Fritzsche's insight comes from what she calls a "beat on the street" approach to stock picking. In the vein of some retail analysts, she and her staff call or visit 50 stores for each of the big four wireless carriers every quarter. From the data gleaned through her mystery shopping, she is able to draw conclusions on such items as subscriber growth and churn and get a general overview of the marketplace.

Janco Partners' Donna Jaegers

Industry: Diversified Telecommunication Services

Last year, Jaegers thought Broadwing (nasdaq: BWNG - news - people ) looked cheap relative to assets and was impressed with the small-cap telecom's sales and service improvements. Jaegers' bullish call on Broadwing netted a gain of 157% into October 2006, when Level 3 Communications (nyse: LVLT - news - people ) agreed to acquire Broadwing.

Jefferies & Co.'s Debra Bromberg

Industry: Electric Utilities, Multi-Utilities

Entergy was a top pick of Bromberg's last year and has already enjoyed a strong run. She held a "buy" rating on the stock as it gained 38% in 2006. Shares are up 26% this year through April 25.

Bromberg outperformed industry benchmarks for stock picking in all industries she had coverage in 2006. A second strong selection that helped her do that was FPL Group (nyse: FPL - news - people ). The Florida utility and merchant generator jumped 26% during the seven months in 2006 Bromberg held a "buy" on the stock.

Atlantic Equities' Christopher Hickey

Industry: Software

 His calls on BEA Systems (nasdaq: BEAS  ) exemplified his best work in 2006. Starting the year with an "overweight" rating, BEA stock rose 38% before his April 2006 downgrade to "neutral," after which price gains slowed to 18% during a turbulent six months. Following another demotion of BEA in October by Hickey, its shares slid 18% during the remainder of the year.

Another smart call: Last June Hickey went bullish on Adobe Systems (nasdaq: ADBE ). That pick would have rewarded investors with a 43% gain by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley's Jennifer Pinnick

Industry: Real Estate Management & Development; Consumer Services

Pinnick's prescient "overweight" ratings on brokerages CB Richard Ellis (nyse: CBG - news - people ) and Trammell Crow (nyse: TCC - news - people ) for parts of last year helped vault her into the top 10 list for all analysts making buy-sell recommendations. Investors who followed Pinnick's timing saw gains of 40% on CB Richard Ellis and 90% on Trammell Crow.

CB Richard Ellis acquired Trammell Crow last December, and now Richard Ellis is Pinnick's No. 1 pick. She says CBRE's cost savings from the merger are being underestimated by the market, and she expects robust growth in the next year. She thinks that the stock could rise 25% over its current price.

ThinkEquity Partners' Audrey Snell

Industry: Commercial Banks, Diversified Financial Services, Consumer Finance

Snell's best pick in 2006 was First Marblehead (nyse: FMD - news - people ) with a "buy" in July. From then until the end of the year, shares of the Boston, Mass., provider of outsourcing services for private educational lending gained 72%.

Stanford Group's Erik R. Olbeter

Industry: IT Services; Aerospace & Defense


Bearish analysis
For eight months in 2006, he cautioned against shares of Dynamics Research (nasdaq: DRCO ), an Andover, Mass., company that does engineering work for defense and intelligence customers. The stock dropped 44% during that period.

 Last August, he put a buy rating on DynCorp International (nyse: NCP - news - people ), at $10. By the end of the year, shares of the company, which provides governments with services ranging from narcotics eradication to vehicle maintenance, had climbed to $16.

CIBC World Markets' Daniel Gelbtuch

Industry: Semiconductors, Computers & Peripherals

At $5.05, he got in early on the price run of memory manufacturer STEC (nasdaq: STEC ) (formerly called SimpleTech). STEC showed investors a 151% gain by year's end, making it Gelbtuch's most lucrative call. On the bearish side, Gelbtuch's full-year "underperform" on Pixelworks (nasdaq: PXLW - news - people ) saved investors from the stock's 55% slide.

"A lot of controversy and misunderstanding is what I like to find," quips Gelbtuch when asked what he looks for when picking stocks.

Citigroup's Jason Bazinet

Industry: Media

One of the media stocks that Bazinet likes is Time Warner (nyse: TWX ). He's excited about the new business strategy at its AOL division of no longer charging dial-up customers for access to their content. He thinks that the company will be able to emulate the business models of Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO) and Google (nasdaq: GOOG) and pull in greater revenues from selling advertising on the site.

Bazinet expects operating income, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), at AOL to remain at $2 billion after the change in strategy for AOL. But he thinks that investors will value the AOL business at a higher multiple to EBITDA, raising the value of AOL to $24 billion by 2009, from about $13 billion.

Goldman Sachs' Laura Conigliaro

Industry: Computers & Peripherals

 In 2006, she earned at least four (maximum of five) stars from StarMine for earnings accuracy on almost every stock she covered.

Conigliaro works with two analysts at Goldman Sachs: David Bailey and Min Park. The group utilizes bottom-up quantitative models and performs extensive channel checks to arrive at earnings estimates. They also employ a number of different valuation metrics, depending on whether they classify a company as mature, growth or turnaround. Among the fundamentals her group uses are earnings and sales multiples, and the enterprise multiple. To calculate enterprise multiple, divide enterprise value (market value plus debt, minus cash) by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Petrie Parkman's Waqar Syed

Industry: Energy Equipment & Services

Syed looks for strong fundamentals including earnings locked into contracts and free cash flow (operating cash flow less maintenance and growth capital expenditures, minus expected dividend and debt repayment).

FTN Midwest's Jeff Davis

Industry: Commercial Banks, Thrifts & Mortgage Finance

FTN Midwest's Jeff Davis is the top earnings estimator for commercial banks and fifth-best among all analysts at estimating earnings.

Increasing credit costs and slowing deposit growth are putting pressure on net interest margins. Davis expects the stocks in his industry, as a group, to underperform the overall stock market. Davis currently has only one buy rating, on First Charter (nasdaq: FCTR)

Raymond James' James Parker

Industry: Airlines

For Parker, predicting earnings involves more than spending hours scrutinizing spreadsheets--though such analysis is also part of his job. In addition to the standard financial and industry-specific metrics, Parker thoroughly researches companies by developing management contacts and making countless calls to sources across the airlines value chain. His team reaches out to aircraft manufacturers, travel companies, airports and many other secondary sources.


Stifel Nicolaus' Christopher King

Industry: Diversified Telecommunication Services, Wireless Telecommunications Services

King says his success is due in large part to his discipline in picking stocks. "I try not to chase stocks that run a little bit, particularly in the U.S. telecom sector, where we generally view the sector as mature. There, we look for stocks that have fallen out of favor and try to determine if we can make a compelling argument that investor sentiment will change," he says.

One of his top picks is NII Holdings (nasdaq: NIHD ), formerly Nextel International, which focuses on the Latin American markets of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Peru. Long before it even hit the radar screens of many of his peers, King was covering the Reston, Va., company. Since King initiated a "buy" rating on the stock in December 2004, NII has gained 247%.

King is so infatuated with the Latin American story that he regularly trolls 15 to 20 Latin American news and regulatory sites each day. If he's not in his Baltimore office, there's a good chance you'll find him strolling the streets of Brazil and Mexico, where he conducts due diligence at least four times a year. He sees the most promise in these two countries--combined, they comprise more than 50% of Latin America's total wireless revenues.

"It's a region in the world that analysts don't visit a lot, so there's a lack of information and we can differentiate ourselves better there," King says. Because Latin American companies tend to be more closed off to the Street, careful channel checks pay off in this region.



Sources





http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_jr_0501fritzsche.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_pm_0501jaegers.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_jr_0501hickey.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_sr_0501bazinet.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_gm_0501conigliaro.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_pm_0501syed.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_bz_0501davis.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_er_0501parkerhorne.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/29/starmine-stocks-analysts-pf-ii-pf_07topanalysts-cz_er_0501king.html

http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/01/best-brokers-analysts-pf-07topanalysts-cz-sk_0501starmine_land.html

http://excellence.thomsonreuters.com/award/starmine (This site has all the details of top sell side analysts for various years)

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2005

Top Sell-Side Security Analysts and Special Methods - 2006

Aerospace Company Analysis - Special Accounting Measures

January 2013

Boeing 787 Cashflows and Costs

Boeing Co. could find it difficult to hit its target for break-even 787 cash flow by early 2015 as it seems that 787 costs are not declining rapidly enough for the aerospace company.

During the fourth quarter, 787 unit cost is estimated at $218 million, down from $232 million in the third quarter, although well above the $190 million level that would have helped Boeing pacing to its 787 cash flow guidance.

Boeing expects its 787 deferred production balance to peak at $20 billion in late 2014 or early 2015 as production stabilizes at 10/month, up from $15.9 billion now. This would require its 787 unit production cost to fall below its average program accounting cost by then.

Given Boeing's assumption for low single- digit margins on its initial 1,100-aircraft accounting quantity, this also implies an expectation for a per-unit cost below its average selling price by then.

"Our analysis indicates that in order for Boeing to hit its 787 cash flow guidance, it will need to bring its unit production cost down roughly 50% faster than it did on 777," UBS analyst David Strauss wrote in a note to clients.

Strauss expects Boeing's unit cost would need to drop to roughly $111 million in early 2015 from $218 million in the fourth quarter with its cumulative average cost falling 24 percent with each doubling in production.

At Boeing's current pace of cost improvement, 787 cash burn could worsen to about $6 billion a year in 2013-14 from about $5 billion in 2012.

Boeing expects total 787 production to exceed deliveries in 2013 as 787-9 production begins while deliveries don't start until 2014.

The 787 program was launched in April 2004 with a record order from Japan's All-Nippon Airways (ANA). Fifty-nine customers from six continents of the world have placed orders for 870 airplanes valued over $178 billion, making it the most successful twin-aisle launch of a new commercial airplane in Boeing's history.

The company could convert these orders in to revenue only when it solves the battery issue on the 787 which led the Federal Aviation Administration or FAA issue a directive that led to all in-service 787s temporarily ceasing operations. Boeing said it is committed to working with the FAA, and other applicable regulatory authorities to return the aircraft to service with the full confidence of customers and the traveling public. While production continues on the 787, the company is suspending deliveries until clearance is granted by the FAA.

The company had reported higher than expected 787 deliveries for the fourth quarter at 23, including 11 in December, totaling 46 in 2012. Growth in delivery rate could help the company reduce the cash burn.